8 trends for 2050
Stupidity or bravery? Probably the former!
For some wild reason, I’ve decided to try to picture what the world may look like in 2050. To begin with, let's take a quick trip down memory lane. 27 years ago, in 1996, the world was a vastly different place. Tom Cruise, was busy running in Mission Impossible films, Michael Jordan was the GOAT, and oversized clothing was considered stylish.
Okay, some things are still the same, but for the most part, the world is quite different. Back in the day, the internet was still in its infancy, cell phones were clunky, and the idea of a self-driving car or a drone delivery system would have seemed like pure fantasy.
Fast forward to today, and a lot of that is in the realm of possibility. We can order almost anything we want online and have it delivered to our doorstep within hours. Social media has changed the world, and AI is on the cusp of changing it further!
So, what might the world look like in 2050? It's impossible to say. Chances are, I'm getting most of this wrong and sometime in 2049, this article will be deleted to save myself from shame. Either way for now let me embrace some stupidity and bravery and get this article going!
Disclaimer - Views are mine and not my employers
1. More grey hair around the world
We just don't seem to be having as many babies as we used to. In most parts of the world, fertility rates have dropped significantly, and people are living longer than ever before. The result? Populations are skewing older and older.
What's particularly concerning is that this trend is happening even in countries where the government offers generous parental leave policies and other incentives to encourage childbearing.
During the pandemic, Singapore even offered a one-time payment as an incentive to parents, to not only encourage them to have children but also to alleviate the financial burden of raising a family during such uncertain times. Despite these efforts, Singapore's fertility rate has not shown dramatic improvement. This suggests that government incentives alone may not be enough to address the issue and that deeper social and cultural changes may be necessary to encourage people to have children.
This decline in fertility rates can be attributed to various factors, including the rising cost of living, changing gender roles, and the trend of delaying starting a family. Many women(families) are opting to have children later in life, which can affect their ability to conceive and reduce the number of children they have.
What is clear is that unless disaster strikes, we are going to be living in a world with more older people. 16% is the number according to the medium fertility scenario but if that further slows, I won’t be surprised to see a higher number.
So what does an older world mean?
More pressure on the healthcare system - Yep.
Slower economic growth - Potentially.
Wage inflation in countries with small working-age populations - Maybe, but AI could have a deflationary impact here.
2. Can’t say Goodbye to masks yet
Picture a world where borders are porous, where goods and people flow freely across continents, and where cities are teeming with millions of people living in close proximity to one another. Now imagine a tiny virus, invisible to the naked eye, that can travel the world in a matter of hours and jump from person to person with ease. That's the world we live in today, and it's a world that's more vulnerable to the spread of epidemics and pandemics than ever before. I don’t think that’s going anywhere.
It all starts with the ease of travel. As people move across borders, they bring with them not just their ideas and cultures, but also their diseases. A single infected person can set off a chain reaction that leads to a global pandemic, as we saw with COVID-19.
Despite the unprecedented challenges posed by the pandemic, it may come as a surprise that more people traveled by air in 2020 than they did in 1996. Goes to show just how much we travel now. Even domestic travel within a country can facilitate the spread of disease, especially in densely populated areas like cities.
The world is becoming increasingly urbanized, with more and more people living in large, crowded cities. This makes it easier for diseases to spread from person to person, as there are more opportunities for contact. Add in factors like poor sanitation and inadequate healthcare, and you have a recipe for a potential health crisis.
But there's one more factor that's contributing to the trend toward more frequent and severe epidemics and pandemics: climate change. As the world warms and ecosystems change, new diseases may emerge or existing ones may spread to new areas. This is because climate change can alter the habitats exposing animals and humans to new(or old) diseases.
As the polar ice caps continue to melt due to climate change, it is not only causing rising sea levels but also exposing new areas of land and water to human activity. This increased human activity in previously remote areas can lead to the spread of diseases that were once isolated to these regions. In 2016, a 12-year-old boy died from anthrax in a remote area of Siberia, which was linked to an outbreak in reindeer that had died from the same disease decades earlier. The anthrax had been trapped in frozen soil and was released as the permafrost thawed, infecting both the reindeer and the boy.
All this to say, we cannot bid farewell to masks just yet. The ever-looming threat of epidemics and pandemics is a stark reminder of our collective vulnerability in this fast-paced, interconnected world.
3. We don’t hit net zero by 2050
Okay, so before we get to net zero let’s just look at where the emissions come from.
When it comes to decarbonization, there are currently two approaches: carbon reduction and carbon capture. The former focuses on reducing emissions at the source, such as by transitioning to renewable energy sources or improving energy efficiency. The latter involves capturing emissions from industrial processes or directly through the air and storing them underground or using them for other purposes. Let’s start with reduction.
Reducing carbon emissions at scale will require a massive overhaul of our infrastructure and energy systems. While we have made progress in developing alternative energy sources like solar and wind, there are still many hurdles to overcome.
One major challenge is the issue of grid stability. As we shift away from traditional power sources like coal and gas, we need to ensure that the grid can handle the fluctuating output of renewable energy sources. Without grid stability, we won't be able to fully decarbonize our transportation systems either. Electric vehicles (EVs) are a promising solution, but if we're charging them with electricity from fossil fuels, we're not truly eliminating emissions.
Another challenge is agriculture. Methane emissions from sources like enteric fermentation are a major contributor to carbon emissions, and finding solutions that work for farmers and the environment alike will be a major challenge. (More on this here)
While I am not doubting the ingenuity of human innovation, it is the very complexity of our global energy system that makes it unlikely for the world to switch entirely to renewable sources overnight. Take, for instance, the production of wind turbines which require steel and transportation. Until we figure out a way to make electricity, steel, and transport fully renewable, we will have to still rely on a mix of renewable and non-renewable sources to decarbonize our economy.
While developed nations may be able to make the transition more easily, underdeveloped countries may face significant challenges in terms of infrastructure, energy availability, and costs. Moreover, as we move towards renewable energy sources, we must ensure that the transition is fair and equitable for everyone. This is where the concept of a just transition comes in. We must ensure that workers in the fossil fuel industry are not left behind and that their livelihoods are protected. We must also ensure that low-income communities, which are often the most impacted by climate change, are not disproportionately affected by the costs of the transition. This is what makes it very difficult to complete a move to renewable sources.
Carbon capture is promising and can play a key role in reducing carbon emissions. However, we are still far from being able to implement carbon capture at a scale that would make a significant difference in our efforts to reach net zero. The current technologies for carbon capture are still in the developmental stage and very expensive, and it will take time and resources to improve them and make them economically viable.
Moreover, we don't yet have a perfect answer for what to do with the captured carbon once we have it. There are a few options, such as injecting it underground or using it to create building materials, but these solutions are still in their early stages.
As I said, I am optimistic but I think net zero by 2050 may be a stretch. (Ofcourse would be delighted to be wrong here)
4. Healthcare gets tailored
You walk into a clothing store and you're greeted by a friendly tailor who takes your measurements, asks about your style preferences, and offers you a selection of fabrics to choose from. You end up with a perfectly fitting suit that's tailored just for you. Now imagine that same level of personalization applied to healthcare. That's what the future holds. (Well at least that’s what I think)
In the movie Iron Man 3, Jarvis was able to diagnose Tony's anxiety attack. By 2050, we may have something like Jarvis in real life. (More on AI later). However, to make this a reality, we need to start with collecting and analyzing data.
Genetic sequencing is the process of analyzing an individual's DNA to identify any genetic mutations or variations that may cause or increase the risk of certain diseases. Thanks to advancements in technology, genetic sequencing is becoming more accessible and affordable. In the future, our doctors will be equipped with our genetic makeup, including any inherited predispositions to certain diseases or conditions. By tailoring our treatment plans according to our unique genetic profile, doctors can help prevent diseases from developing or progressing.
But genetic sequencing is just one source of data. Live data monitoring, which is already a reality in some ways thanks to wearable devices such as smartwatches, will take healthcare personalization to a whole new level. Smart toilets that can analyze our urine and detect early signs of diseases or track our gut health will be more prevalent. We may have sensors embedded in our skin that could continuously monitor our vital signs and alert us to potential health issues before they become serious. A lot of this already exists but it will be better, cheaper, and more prevalent.
In addition to the advancements in genetic sequencing and live data monitoring, healthcare in 2050 will also see significant developments in robotics and automation. Robotic surgery is already being used in some hospitals, but in the future, we can expect to see even more complex procedures being performed by robots with greater precision and efficiency. And of course, I've already touched on gene editing in my previous post. Taking into account all these advancements, it's hard not to be excited about the future of healthcare.
5. Reach for the stars - privately
In his book "Outliers," Malcolm Gladwell argues that success is not just a product of individual talent and hard work, but also of circumstances and opportunities. When it comes to space travel, there are a multitude of narratives that have contributed to its growing prominence and potential for success.
I’d like to think there are 5 such narratives/reasons.
Are we alone in this world?: Since the dawn of human civilization, we have been fascinated by the vastness of the universe and the possibility of other life forms. This innate desire to explore and learn has not lost us.
Earth is doomed: The growing threat of climate change and the potential for environmental disasters may force many to explore options beyond Earth.
Improving earth itself: Space exploration has already brought us many benefits, such as GPS, weather monitoring, satellite communication, etc. As we continue to explore, we can expect even greater benefits in the future.
Utilize resources from space: The resources available in space, such as rare metals and water, could have tremendous potential for human development.
Tourism: The possibility of space tourism has captured the imagination of people around the world. Companies such as Virgin Galactic and SpaceX are already working on developing commercial spaceflight capabilities.
Whatever the reason, space has our attention, and more importantly capital. As technology improves and we look towards 2050, it is clear that space will play an increasingly important role in our lives.
More space stations? Yep
Space travel packages for date night? Yep
A 5-star Resort in space? Yep (Okay maybe)
Inter-planet travel? Maybe not as tourists but should have done a mission
Worldwide internet thanks to satellite-based communication systems? Yep
Man/Woman on the moon again? Yep
A 1-star lodge on the moon? Yep
Mining activities in space? Yep
Space-based manufacturing capabilities? Yes (3d printing says Hi)
Space Rumba? Yep debris cleaning will become very important going forward
As I said earlier, I have the ability to delete this article in 2049, so I don’t mind writing all this right now!
6. VR finally makes it!
Over the past decade, we have heard a lot about the potential of virtual reality (VR) and its ability to revolutionize the way we experience the world. However, despite the hype, progress has been slow, and many have been left wondering whether VR will ever live up to its promises. I think so!
Picture this: you're seated in your living room, but you're also in the stands of a Champions League final. With a VR headset, you can turn your head and see every angle of the game, from the kick-off to the final whistle. And when the game goes to penalties, you can switch the camera to behind the goalkeeper, feeling every bit of the nerves and excitement of being at the stadium. All this without leaving the comfort of your own home.
This video was uploaded in June 2017, so clearly we are already on our way. Better cameras and faster internet should improve this experience tenfold. I suppose the challenge remains, is there a market for this?
With the slow adoption of VR technology, broadcasters, and content creators have been hesitant to invest in producing VR content. The high costs of producing and broadcasting VR content, coupled with the limited market for VR headsets, have made it difficult for companies to justify the expense.
However, I believe that as technology improves and prices come down, the appeal of VR is likely to grow. One area where VR excels is gaming, providing an ultimate immersive experience where players can step into a virtual world and interact like never before. If live sports are not enough, gaming should push VR to the edge.
We haven't even touched on the concept of the Metaverse yet. The Metaverse as you may know is essentially a shared virtual space where users can interact with each other in real time, like a virtual reality version of the internet. While I personally don't know enough to confidently predict the success of the Metaverse, I do believe that the growing interest in VR and immersive technology will only lead to more capital going it’s way. And that can only be a good thing for the future of virtual reality.
7. RCB to win a title by 2050
Okay, so to start with, “Will IPL continue for another 27 years?”
The NBA has been around for over 70 years.
The NFL has been around for over 100 years.
The Premier League started in 1992 but league football has existed long before that. La Liga for instance started in 1929.
So given that IPL has completed 15 years, faced a few issues and scandals, and is stronger than ever is reassuring. Furthermore just knowing that there are over a billion cricket-crazy Indians is enough for me to predict that club cricket in the shortest format is not going away anytime soon.
Okay, now why this confidence towards RCB?
Personal bias? Absolutely. But also the team has been unlucky. RCB has been one game away from winning the whole thing, three different times. They lost the final in 2009 to the Deccan Chargers, in 2011 to the Chennai Super Kings, and in 2016 to the Sunrisers Hyderabad. That’s 3/15. Not terrible if you ask me.
Can Kohli turn it around in the next five-six years and get them to win one? Here’s hoping. Was he the jinx? Doubt it but if so, he’s probably gonna retire in another 5-6 years. That leaves another 21 years. In the meantime, there won’t be any Dhoni in Chennai or Rohit in Mumbai. In the age of new stars, can RCB cross the line? I think so.
Also, let’s assume that RCB Has a 5% chance every year of winning the tournament. Even then, after being far from the favorite, in 27 years the odds they win at least once is close to 75%. (I’m hoping I have my math right here)
8. AI - The new normal
Okay, I saved this one for the end, cause I frankly have no clue where this is headed. What I am sure about though is that we are at a moment in history when AI is going to disrupt everything. We won’t be talking about AI in 2050 like we do today. It will no longer be a “buzzword”. It will be so ingrained in our lives that we just treat it normally like we do today with the internet or electricity.
As you may have guessed, I am writing this after GPT-4, and so my mind, like most people, is boggled by just how far we have gotten. This has led me, in the last month, to read up a ton on AI, and one framework I found particularly insightful was introduced in the book "Prediction Machines" by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb.
The authors argue that when the cost of prediction(AI) falls, three things happen.
First, the demand for predictions goes up. After all the first law of economics states, the lower the price, the higher the demand. Interestingly, demand here for predictions(AI) could be seen across fields.
Second, cheaper prediction lowers the value of substitutes to machine prediction, such as human prediction.
And third, it increases the value of complements to machine prediction, such as data.
This framework while rather simplistic helps explain why AI is likely to have such a transformative impact on our society in the coming decades. As the cost of AI technology continues to decrease, we can expect to see an increase in demand for AI across different fields. This shift is already happening in many industries, such as finance, healthcare, transportation, agriculture, manufacturing, etc.
This Co-Pilot video by Microsoft dropped in March 2023 and just goes to show, the state of AI right now. It’s scarily amazing and this is just the start! I don’t think I have the ability to think exponentially to see where AI will take us. I know it’ll disrupt everything but Im going to stick to what I can fathom and touch on 6 things.
Autonomous vehicles could become mainstream in developed nations, transforming transportation and mobility as we know it. Commercial vehicles like tractors could see this much sooner.
Communication with computers will become more seamless and natural, with the ability to simply tell the computer what we want to do, whether through speech or typing. AI will take care of the rest. It’ll be like an Alexa but on steroids and useful. Phones will be similar too.
Cybersecurity: As our reliance on AI and data grows, cybersecurity will become even more critical to protect against potential breaches and cyber attacks. My guess is we will be relying on AI to fight AI.
Access to knowledge - Colleges will need to figure out ways to better test students. On the other hand, I don’t think a better time to learn has existed (yet). The ability to get pointed questions and answers on anything under the sun, in seconds is mind-boggling. Access to knowledge is only going to get better.
AI Friends - In the future, it's possible that people may turn to AI chatboxes and assistants as friends for emotional support. Apps like Replika already exist, but they are only going to improve. While that sounds rather sad, it could potentially be valuable for those who are isolated or struggling with mental health issues.
As AI increasingly automates routine tasks, it's likely that job profiles will change, and some jobs may become obsolete. However, history has shown that humans have a remarkable ability to adapt to technological change. For example, in the early 1950s, an accountant's job would have been to add. Then calculators came, and later computers, yet miraculously, accountants still have a job. As Charles Darwin once said, "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change".
As I come to the end of this article, I realize that predicting the future is a daunting task akin to hitting a bullseye while being blindfolded and hung upside down from a tree. Needless to say, it's not something I excel at, and I haven't even touched on topics like Blockchain, 3D printing, or nanotech. Perhaps it's my attempt to not dive further out of my circle of competence.
Despite the challenges, I must admit that attempting to glimpse into the future has been a thrilling exercise. Who knows, maybe RCB will win the IPL next season, and I'll at least get one of these eight trends right.
If you made it this far, I hope I left you with some food for thought. Thank you for reading and If you have not yet, please consider subscribing.
I’ve referred to a few books while thinking about this article and I’ve mentioned them below.
How to avoid climate disaster - Bill Gates
Numbers Don’t lie - Vaclav Smil
Prediction Machines - Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb
The Great Demographic Reversal - Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan
The Genesis Machine - Amy Webb and Andrey Hessel
You may not agree with everything in them, but they all are thought-provoking.