Some thoughts on India

Recently, I ordered a burger through Zomato, which arrived nearly two hours late. Unexpected rains had clearly taken my delivery agent by surprise. He called me, explaining that he was on a two-wheeler, without a raincoat. He had to park in one spot for a couple of hours before he could get back to delivering my food.

Naturally, I wasn't thrilled about the delay, but considering the heavy downpour, it was very understandable. When the food finally arrived, I couldn’t help but notice the delivery agent. He was a sweet, middle-aged man, drenched to the bone. Despite his discomfort, he was grateful that I hadn't cancelled the order.

As I ate my food, two simple things crossed my mind:

1. The fries are soggy.

2. I'm having a much better day than the delivery agent.

The truth is, most of India is closer to that delivery agent than to someone like me who has the privilege and luxury of ordering food online.

Let's break it down.

• At the very top, you have the billionaires. All 200 of them, who as of 2024 (Forbes), have a total combined net worth close to 23% of the country's GDP. If I were to assign a film for these people, think Crazy Rich Asians.

• Below the billionaires, you have the consumption class—the people who pay taxes, shop online, invest in the stock market, order food online, and usually have house help. Close to 10% of the population may belong to this class. Just remember, 10% of India would still be one of the top 10 largest countries in the world by population.

• Below the consumption class, you find the aspirers. These are people who have budget smartphones and internet packs but don’t shop online. They may work for the consumption class. Our delivery agent may find himself here. According to Blume research, around 300 million people fall in this category.

• And below the aspirers are the people struggling to meet their basic necessities, with wages well below the already low GDP per capita. According to Blume research, close to a billion people may find themselves here.

We live in an India with cheap internet, affordable smartphones, and an incredible digital payments infrastructure. With a promising tech stack, a solid services industry, and a manufacturing sector that is gaining focus, there is a lot to like. Most importantly, we are a very young country. Being considered an investment-grade nation (by, say, Moody’s) while also being young enough that even by 2050, close to 80% of our population is expected to be below the age of 65, is great. It’s a relatively small list of countries that make that cut, and India shines through. There is a lot to be optimistic about.

On the flip, there's the pressing need to grow rich before we grow old. We need to deal with the stark reality that India has 205 million households where each person is earning only about $1000 an year. (Blume Research) There's a constant concern that our demographic advantage, owing to our sheer scale, could potentially turn into a challenge. We will need to create jobs for a massive workforce, with AI on the horizon. With child malnutrition still at extremely high levels, rising inequality and polarization, lack of quality education, and environmental concerns like the looming water crisis, there is a lot to solve.

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So yes, order a burger, go through some data, invest in the markets, travel a bit, read books with opposing views on the future of India, and you will most likely experience enough mood swings between “You’d be a fool to bet against India” and “I have no clue what is going to happen to this country.” You may find yourself using words like “cautiously optimistic” to express your thoughts about the country (despite the fact that you hate that term as it quite literally says nothing).

I think a better way to encapsulate my thoughts is to compare my feelings toward India to watching Virat Kohli play a swinging ball on the offside. Optimistic to see a cover drive? Absolutely. Worried that he could be caught in the slips? You know it.